10/22—Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-July 2020
Between March 1 and August 1, 2020, 1 336 561 deaths occurred in the US, a 20% increase over expected deaths (1 111 031 [95% CI, 1 110 364 to 1 111 697]). The 10 states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Arizona, Mississippi, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Michigan. The increase in absolute deaths in these states relative to expected values ranged from 22% in Rhode Island and Michigan to 65% in New York. Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19 (Woolf et al. 2020).
Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries
From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex.
A simple tool for comparing benefits and 'costs' of COVID-19 exit strategies
This paper quantifies the proportion of COVID-19 hospitalisations averted, versus the proporition of the labour force locked down, for various combinations of age- and comorbidity-related lockdown exit strategies. We show that both continuing lockdown for all persons over 65, and those with comorbidities over 50, have similar effects on hospitalisations.
A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy and propose coordinated regional interventions to prevent future national lockdowns, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. We show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease.
COVID-19 in Northeast Brazil: achievements and limitations in the responses of the state governments
The highest incidence of COVID-19 among the nine states in the Northeast was recorded in Sergipe, Paraíba and Ceará. Piauí, Paraíba and Ceará were the states that most tested. Factors associated with transmission included the high proportion of people in informal work. States with international airports played an important role in the entry of the virus and the initial spread, especially Ceará. All states applied social distancing measures, banned public events and closed schools. The response was a significant increase in social distancing, especially in Ceará and Pernambuco, a decline in the reproduction rate (Rt), and a separation of the curve of observed cases versus expected cases if the non-pharmacological interventions had not been implemented in all states.
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