12/8—CDC estimates 5-12% transmission risk with test and 7-day quarantine
Options to Reduce Quarantine for Contacts of Persons with SARS-CoV-2 Infection Using Symptom Monitoring and Diagnostic Testing
[Via Johns Hopkins.] The CDC estimates that testing at Day 5 or later (and terminating the quarantine at Day 7 or later) would reduce transmission risk to 5-12%. For individuals who do not get tested, the CDC estimates that ending the quarantine period at 10 days can reduce transmission risk to 1-10%. The transmission risk is defined as the probability that an infected individual would transmit the infection after leaving quarantine, if quarantine were ended on a given day. For context, the model estimates the transmission risk at Day 1 to be approximately 60%, with or without a negative test.
Clinical, laboratory, and radiologic characteristics of patients with initial false-negative SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test results
We retrospectively reviewed test results from 15,011 adults who underwent ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs); 2,699 had an initial negative NAAT and repeat testing. Sixty of 2,699 subjects (2.2%) had a false-negative (FN) result. Most subjects with FNs had symptoms (52/60; 87%) and chest radiography (19/32; 59%) consistent with COVID-19.
CDC Document for Phased Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines
Proposed Groups for Phase 1 vaccination: High-Risk Medical Conditions >100M people; Adults ≥ 65 years old ~53M people; Essential workers ~87M (of which Healthcare personnel ~21M).
Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany
As face masks became mandatory at different points in time across German regions, we can compare the rise in infections in regions with masks and regions without masks. Weighing various estimates, we conclude that 20 d after becoming mandatory face masks have reduced the number of new infections by around 45%. As economic costs are close to zero compared to other public health measures, masks seem to be a cost-effective means to combat COVID-19.
Summary of Guidance for Public Health Strategies to Address High Levels of Community Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and Related Deaths, December 2020
COVID-19 pandemic control requires a multipronged application of evidence-based strategies while improving health equity: universal face mask use, physical distancing, avoiding nonessential indoor spaces, increasing testing, prompt quarantine of exposed persons, safeguarding those at increased risk for severe illness or death, protecting essential workers, postponing travel, enhancing ventilation and hand hygiene, and achieving widespread COVID-19 vaccination coverage.
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