3/1—Lockdowns "at least" 5–10x more harmful than COVID-19
COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink
A cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 finds that lockdowns are far more harmful to public health (at least 5–10 times so in terms of wellbeing years) than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. Progress in the response to COVID-19 depends on considering the trade-offs discussed here that determine the wellbeing of populations.
Lockdown benefit varies among countries and sub-national units: a reanalysis of the data by Bendavid et al. (2021)
[Preprint.] Recent analyses on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing COVID-19 growth rates delivered conflicting conclusions. I present the results of a reanalysis of the data by Bendavid et al. (2021) [see below]. Instead of relying on pairwise comparisons between 10 countries with fixed-effects regression models to isolate the effect of lockdown measures, I modelled the development of the pandemic with and without lockdown measures for the entire period and all countries included in the data with one mixed-effects regression model. I replicated the main finding of the authors: the data do not support the hypothesis that the implementation of more restrictive NPIs leads to a general and strong decline in daily COVID-19 growth rates. Considering the fundamental difference in analytical approaches […], this zero finding can be considered as robust. [However], mandatory stay-at-home orders did lead to substantial decreases in COVID-19 growth rates in some countries and sub-national units. The heterogeneity in the effect of mandatory stay-at-home orders on the spread of COVID-19 is challenging from a scientific and political point of view.
Assessing mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closure effects on the spread of COVID‐19
[Repost, see above.] We estimate COVID‐19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in 10 countries. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, 2 countries that did not implement mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures, as comparison countries. Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries, including South Korea and Sweden that implemented only less‐restrictive NPIs. After subtracting the epidemic and less‐restrictive NPIs effects, we find no clear, significant beneficial effect of more restrictive NPIs on case growth in any country. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less‐restrictive interventions.
Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions
Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific ‘what-if’ scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption
Taking Vaccine to Where the Virus Is—Equity and Effectiveness in Coronavirus Vaccinations
This article outlines an approach to achieve equity, efficiency, and ultimately effectiveness in the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Black, Latino, Indigenous, and Pacific Islander populations and low-income communities generally have borne the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many individuals from these communities perform essential in-person work (often without adequate protection for workers or enforcement of workplace health orders), live in crowded housing (exacerbated in areas with existing housing affordability crises) and in poverty, and have limited access to and trust in a daunting and fragmented health care system. A place-based approach can be implemented efficiently according to the principles below:
Focus on Zip Codes With the Greatest Numbers of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths per Capita Within a Region
Vaccinate the Entire Community in Hard-Hit Zip Codes
Partner With Civic and Community Leaders in Affected Zip Codes to Increase Acceptance
The Coronavirus Pandemic 1 Year On—What Went Wrong?
Vaccines offer the best chance of returning to normal, but circulating variants pose a major obstacle, particularly the emergence of variants that are more transmissible and are developing partial resistance to vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. With rampant global circulation, SARS-CoV-2 will have ample opportunity to mutate further. What went wrong and how can society learn from its greatest failures?
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